April 15, 2015

Four Hours Not Enough for Russia to Ready Troops for Battle

International Centre for Defence and Security research fellow Riina Kaljurand said in a Postimees daily “interview of the day” that four hours is not enough for Russia to ready its forces for combat and attack Estonia.

International Centre for Defence and Security research fellow Riina Kaljurand said in a Postimees daily “interview of the day” that four hours is not enough for Russia to ready its forces for combat and attack Estonia.

Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves said last week that NATO military experts believe it would take Russia about four hours to go from a decision to attack to the invasion. Kaljurand said that would be enough time for Russia to lay make only certain preparations.
“I think that in the most ideal scenario, it could be possible. If the Russian chain of command works so fast that a decision is followed rapidly by an command and the command can be conveyed to the intended recipients and a state of readiness is achieved. I think four hours might be realistic, but only to lay the groundwork for a certain level of readiness. Four hours is certainly not enough to make forces battle ready or for them to conquer Estonia,” said the defence analyst.
She gave the example of the annexation of Crimea, which was prepared well ahead of time. “They had a definite plan. That, too, took more than four hours, even though Russian had forces in Sevastopol. Four hours is enough to put things in motion and attain a certain level, but it is just the first tiny stage.”
Kaljurand said Estonia should use deterrence to keep Russia from going even that far.
Read more: Postimees (in Estonian)

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