Today, all analytical attention seems to be focused on the full-scale war that Russia has unleashed against Ukraine. However, thousands of kilometres away, some events are taking place that can have no less impact on the prospects of world geopolitics.
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The Chinese government exploits foreign academic infrastructure and talent to build a world-class military. Although cooperation with China offers alluring investments, it risks research objectives being mandated by or from China and may result in unintended knowledge transfer in critical areas.
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Reshaped by the new great power competition, the international order has been undergoing revolutionary transformations. Revanchist Russia has unleashed a barbarian war against a sovereign European nation, while increasingly militarised and contentious China looms as a not-so-insidious threat in the Indo-Pacific. In response to these shifting dynamics and mounting geopolitical tensions, Europe is now awakening to the new reality and paying greater attention to the far-away region.
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In the spirit of Chancellor Willy Brandt’s Ostpolitik, Germany prioritised commercial ties with Russia and China over the geopolitical risks they carried. Eventually—it hoped—the autocratic economic partners would liberalise and ‘change through trade.’ Now, winds of change have been blowing in Berlin for almost a year.
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The Baltic states, although not immune to disinformation, have accumulated unique experience and developed effective methods to resist and combat this malice.
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Last week Estonia and Latvia followed Lithuania and quit what used to be known as 16+1, as the Czech Republic and other participating countries become increasingly vocal in their scepticism of the initiative.
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Global tensions between the United States and China peaked following the US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s 2–3 August visit to Taiwan. People around the world held their breaths as speculations over a possible US – China war mounted. The visit concluded peacefully as Pelosi left Taiwan. High tensions remained.
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Russia’s isolation by the West following its invasion of Ukraine has caused China to re-evaluate its strategy for polar development.
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After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Central Asian leaders will be looking nervously over their shoulders. They may well re-orient their military cooperation towards China instead.
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As NATO puts the finishing touches on its new Strategic Concept (expected September 2022), all eyes are on Brussels for hints as to what kind of adaptation the alliance will undergo next.
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