The domestic power base of dictator Alexander Lukashenko is now mostly limited to Belarus’ security structures. Although he is still popular with aged babushkas and dedushkas, who see no reason for or even fear change, Lukashenko can no longer count on blue-collar support from the ‘working collectives’ of the large state-owned factories, or from the younger generations of Belarusians protesting with the white-red-white flags he detests.
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Russia is supporting Alexander Lukashenko behind the scenes. But Lukashenko is also working hard preparing the ground for inviting Russian troops into Belarus if necessary.
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With Belarus rapidly moving towards a post-Lukashenko era, the EU has no credible option but to support Belarusians’ bottom-up demands for democracy. This has geopolitical implications that the EU needs to be prepared to address. Russia is determined to maintain control over Belarus and likely to perceive the EU’s engagement as undesirable if not threatening.
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Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko may remain in power, but the election and its aftermath leave no doubt that he is ruling by force and fraud. The West will need to adjust its approach to Minsk accordingly.
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No one, including the growing internal opposition in Belarus, doubted that the country’s long-lived dictator Alexander Lukashenko would formally win a sixth presidential term in the 9 August 2020 elections. Many people in Belarus want change, but he himself is not ready to go.
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On 1 February 2020, President Alexander Lukashenka, President of Belarus for 25+ years and the longest-serving president in Europe, met with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Minsk. This occasion marked the first time since 1994 that the US Secretary of State has visited Belarus.
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In the last half-decade, the three Baltic states have made dramatic progress towards diversifying their energy supplies, especially of natural gas. This progress—brought about thanks to remarkable political will as well as improved regional cooperation—has resulted in considerable economic benefit while decreasing the three countries’ vulnerability to outside pressure. Yet, much remains to be done in order to complete the three countries’ internal markets.
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International autumn seminar Resilience League, entitled “National resilience: communication and security” and held in Kyiv on 28-30 October 2018, gathered around 30 young professionals and experts from Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus as well as speakers and trainers from the Baltic states, Georgia, Ukraine and United Kingdom.
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ICDS presented on 14 February 2018 the report Russia’s “allies”, which was written by fellow researcher Kalev Stoicescu.
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Those very few countries who align themselves with Russia are almost habitually written off by Western observers as hopeless cases when it comes to cooperation.
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