Research

Defence programme explores issues pertinent to generating, sustaining, and using military power. Its focus is set on such strategic themes as transatlantic, European, and regional defence and deterrence; defence of Ukraine; military threat from and wars of Russia; defence policies, strategies, and force postures of the Baltic states and their allies; defence industry and innovation, and arms control.

It has a long-standing record of analysing and formulating recommendations related to such topics as air and maritime defence, military mobility, defence cooperation in European and Nordic-Baltic frameworks, adaptation of NATO and its forward defence and deterrence posture, defence development in the Baltic states, impact of emerging disruptive technologies on defence, lethal autonomous weapon systems, future of arms control, Russia’s nuclear signalling, and lessons from the war in Ukraine.

Its principle stakeholder and supporter is the Estonian Ministry of Defence, but the programme has also performed work commissioned by other institutions, foreign embassies governments of allied countries and foundations. Through the Defence programme, the ICDS has been involved in EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Consortium jointly led by SIPRI, IISS and four other major European think-tanks. In 2024-26, it is responsible for the ICDS input into the Horizon Europe project, REUNIR (Resilience, Enlargement, Union, Neighbourhood, International Relations). Defence programme also serves as the intellectual backbone of the Annual Baltic Conference on Defence (ABCD).

Head of programme: Tony Lawrence

Foreign Policy programme sets its focus on the issues and developments in international affairs that are of importance to foreign policies of Estonia and its allies. It continuously addresses such strategic themes as transatlantic relations and European security; Ukraine’s integration into European and transatlantic frameworks; EU foreign and security policy and enlargement; relations between great powers; foreign and security policies of Russia and China; Russian state and society; and security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region.

Substantially strengthened through the ICDS merger with the Estonian Foreign Policy Institute in 2018, the programme has explored such themes as Estonia’s influence in the EU, NATO and the UN, Ukraine’s integration into the EU,  EU lawfare, Russian security and intelligence services, Russian civil society and diaspora, Russia-China cooperation, Russia’s relations with the countries in the Global South, Chinese infrastructure and technology policies and their global implications, Estonia’s cooperation with Japan and Taiwan, Nordic-Baltic cooperation, Estonia’sn interests in the Arctic, and Estonian development cooperation.

Its principle stakeholder and supporter is the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, while various other institutions, foundations, and governments of partner countries have also been commissioning its work. The programme serves as a platform for the Japan Chair, a collaborative initiative with the Government of Japan, launched in 2023, with the ICDS being only the third host of a Japan Chair in Europe. Through the Foreign Policy programme, the ICDS is involved in TEPSA (Trans European Policy Studies Association) and, since 2024, the ETNC (European Think-tank Network on China). In 2023-25, the programme has been responsible for the ICDS role, as a work package lead, in Horizon Europe project REDEMOS (Reconfiguring EU Democracy Support. Towards a Sustained Demos in the EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood).
Foreign Policy programme provides intellectual support to the Lennart Meri Conference (LMC), EU Enlargement Conference, and Baltic Indo-Pacific Forum as well as Diplomaatia online magazine.

Head of programme: Helga Kalm

Security & Resilience programme covers non-military threats to security and issues related to strengthening national resilience through the analysis of such strategic themes as hybrid threats, cyber and energy security, information warfare, critical infrastructure protection, intelligence and counter-intelligence, terrorism and sabotage, economic security and sanctions, migration and border security, security implications of emerging disruptive technologies, and crisis preparedness.

Founded in 2017, it has addressed such topics as countering Russian hybrid warfare, including its espionage, cyber, and disinformation operations and attacks on critical undersea infrastructure; protection of Ukrainian and Baltic critical infrastructure; preparedness of civilian agencies and private sector for crisis and war (including such aspects as stockpiling and management of strategic reserves); Estonia’s energy security; challenges and opportunities to security related to aerial drones, Russia’s nuclear disinformation, and China’s disinformation narratives in the Baltics.

The programme has engaged with a range of organisations in catering to their knowledge needs, including the Estonian Parliament, Government Office, State Prosecutor Office, Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications, Ministry of Climate, Ministry of Regional Affairs, Estonian Stockpiling Agency, Estonian Development Cooperation Agency, and Estonian gas and electricity transmission system operator, Elering AS. In 2020-25, it has been responsible for the ICDS contribution to Horizon 2020 project, EU-HYBNET (Empowering a Pan-European Network to Counter Hybrid Threats). Security & Resilience programme leads the ICDS involvement in the EU Strategic Foresight consortium funded by the EU External Action Service. Through its cyber fellow and affiliated non-resident fellows, it also provides support to the Tallinn Digital Summit (TDS).

Head of programme: Marek Kohv