On 21 January, the International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS) was delighted to host a presentation and discussion of a French Institute of International Relations (IFRI) report by Dr Élie Tenenbaum, titled “Return to the East: The Russian Threat and the French Pivot to Europe’s Eastern Flank”.
Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 flung Europe’s Eastern Flank into a new phase of strategic confrontation. The war in Ukraine has been the key engine of change, which has had a major impact on France’s somewhat timid position. Since 2022, in the name of strategic solidarity and the protection of its own security interests, France has significantly reinforced its deterrence and defence posture in support of the collective defence of Europe. For instance, France’s defence cooperation with Estonia, in particular, has grown fast and strong.
Examining the mixed legacy and taking stock of the missed opportunities in the Baltic region and Eastern and Central Europe, the IFRI’s report describes France’s fundamental rethink of its approach to collective security which is evident in three main changes and associated challenges:
- a hardening of tone, reflected in both increased tensions with Russia and Moscow’s destabilising hybrid actions against France;
- the implementation of an active policy of aid to Ukraine;
- a fresh approach to the defence of Europe in the broadest sense, including reinvestment in NATO.
The report also analyses the sustainability of France’s military posture on the Eastern Flank, which will depend on two major geostrategic issues in the Euro-Atlantic area:
- the Russian military threat and the survival of Ukraine;
- the evolution of the US military posture and commitments in Europe.
The discussion was held under the Chatham House Rule.
Dr Élie Tenenbaum is the Director of the Security Studies Center at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI). Trained as a military strategy and defence policy expert, he follows French and Euro-Atlantic military doctrine, capabilities, and strategy and works in particular on issues of irregular warfare, the fight against terrorism, and hybrid threats. Dr Tenenbaum was a visiting fellow at Columbia University and has taught international security at Sciences Po and the history of international relations at the University of Lorraine. He is the author of numerous articles and books on history and strategy, including his latest book, co-authored with Marc Hecker, La guerre de vingt ans: djihadisme et contre-terrorisme au XXIe siècle [The Twenty Years’ War: Jihadism and Counterterrorism in the XXI Century], published by Robert Laffont in 2021. Dr Tenenbaum holds a PhD in history (2015) and is a Sciences Po graduate (2010).
