The Risk of Threat-Based Planning
With the end of the Cold War, other missions and tasks beyond the physical defence of territories and populations – notably, international peace support operations – gained greater emphasis in NATO member states. Hand in hand with these changes, threat-based planning has become unfashionable and new approaches have been developed to replace it. These approaches require defence planners to consider the range of operations their armed forces might have to undertake and to seek to design force structures that are robust and flexible enough to deal with this full range of future challenges. In this way, planning approaches such as scenario- and capability-based planning explicitly seek to prepare armed forces to face an uncertain future.
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