Kalev Stoicescu is a former Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Defence official. He worked at the ICDS from 2014 till 2023 before being elected to the Parliament of the Republic of Estonia. Among other fields, he specialises in issues related to Russian foreign and domestic policy, as well as developments in the field of NATO’s defence and security. He served at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs from 1991-2000, including as Ambassador to the OSCE and Ambassador to the US and Canada. He was a member of the Estonian delegation in border negotiations with Russia and Latvia. He worked for the Ministry of Defence from 2002-2014, first as civilian-military cooperation department head and then, from 2007, as counsellor on defence policy at the Estonian Embassy in Paris.
Author's articles
The Future of Arms Control: Ready to (Dis)Agree?
Having been crumbling already for years, international arms control architecture is now in a perilous state. Existing arrangements have either…
Read moreHow Russia Went to War: The Kremlin’s Preparations for Its Aggression Against Ukraine
This report examines Russia’s preparations for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine: domestically, in Ukraine itself, in the global information domain,…
Read moreA Year Into Russia’s Full-Scale Aggression Against Ukraine – Some Relevant Takeaways
As of now, Russia has amassed hundreds of thousands of troops and thousands of battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, artillery…
Read moreRussia’s War in Ukraine: The Kremlin’s Aims and Assumptions
The first brief in a new series "Russia’s War in Ukraine" discusses Russia’s war aims. These are not limited to…
Read moreGermany, Russia, and Energy Politics
In the fifth and final brief in our Germany and Baltic Security series, Kalev Stoicescu examines another of Germany’s key…
Read moreTurkey’s Future Role in NATO
This is the first research paper by the ICDS that is focused on Turkey, a capable and indispensable, but also…
Read moreKazakhstan May Become a Serious Headache for the Kremlin
Kazakhstan‘s largest and most violent protests ever lasted just a few days, but showcased the fragility in Central Asia, a…
Read moreRussia’s President Demands Ukraine in Exchange for Peace
When, in the context of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin demands legal guarantees from NATO Allies that the Alliance will not…
Read moreDialogue with Russia. Russia Needs to Reset Relations with the West.
Moscow’s resurgent foreign policy and the undemocratic rule of President Vladimir Putin ended the relatively friendly relations that had been…
Read moreAhead of the Biden-Putin Meeting: Russia Is Ready to Escalate Further
The US and Russian presidents, Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin, will meet in Geneva on 16 June, at Biden’s invitation.…
Read moreSputnik V is a Geopolitical Soft-power Weapon
The medical success of Sputnik V would—like any other coronavirus vaccine—doubtless benefit mankind, but its use as a geopolitical soft-power…
Read moreRoundtable on NATO’s Southern Neighbourhood: Clear Strategy Needed
NATO needs to implement a clear and comprehensive strategy for the South that includes concrete aims, joint actions, and resources.…
Read moreNATO’s Southern Neighbourhood: The Alliance Needs a Strategy for the Regions to its South
Allies in the Mediterranean region rightly expect NATO to take threats and challenges from the south as seriously as they…
Read moreThey Only Give Five for Nothing
A grim joke from Soviet times: A Soviet citizen is thrown into jail. “How long is your sentence?” he is…
Read moreThe West Must Continue to Set the Standards of Democracy
The 6 January events in Washington DC provoked disbelief and horror across the Western world. But in authoritarian regimes, they…
Read moreTrump’s Ugly Farewell
The 6 January events in and around the Capitol were a shocking demonstration of how far erratic and irresponsible people,…
Read moreDoes France Seek Alone European “Strategic Autonomy”?
The French President, Emmanuel Macron, recently gave an interview to Le Grand Continent, a journal published by the Groupe d’études…
Read moreIs There a Serious Security Threat to NATO’s Eastern Flank Nations Until Joe Biden’s Inauguration?
There is almost no doubt that former Vice President Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. has won the US presidential elections, although…
Read moreCan the Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh be Solved?
Russia is busy in its Western Military District, especially in Belarus—now undoubtedly the Kremlin’s main political and military priority—where the…
Read moreIntegration for the Sake of Salvation
The domestic power base of dictator Alexander Lukashenko is now mostly limited to Belarus’ security structures. Although he is still…
Read moreRelations between the West and Russia Need Emergency Care
On 7 September, German doctors treating Alexei Navalny in the Charité hospital in Berlin announced that he had been brought…
Read moreWhy Was Alexei Navalnyi Poisoned Now? And Why Was He Handed Over to Germany?
On 20 August, prominent Kremlin critic Alexei Navalnyi collapsed on board a commercial flight, causing it to make an emergency…
Read moreWill Lukashenko Survive the Fraudulent Presidential Elections?
No one, including the growing internal opposition in Belarus, doubted that the country’s long-lived dictator Alexander Lukashenko would formally win…
Read moreStabilising the Sahel. The Role of International Military Operations
The key question of this analysis is whether EU and/or NATO allies, including Estonia, would be willing and able to…
Read moreKalev Stoicescu to DW: A Reduction of US Troops in Germany Would Weaken NATO’s Collective Defence
NATO’s collective defence would be weakened if the decision by US President Donald Trump to reduce US troops numbers in…
Read moreWhat next for NATO? Views from the North-East Flank on Alliance Adaptation
NATO leaders have invited Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to present proposals at their next Summit for measures to reinforce Alliance…
Read moreReducing US Troop Numbers in Germany Would Undermine NATO’s Capability and Credibility
President Donald Trump ordered preparations for reducing considerably US troops numbers in Germany. A formal decision has not been made…
Read moreChronology and Consequences of Russia’s Postponement of Its Constitutional Amendments and Victory Parade
Covid-19 started to spread in China in December 2019. The health authorities in Wuhan (Hubei province) reported the disease on…
Read moreThe Tartu Peace Treaty and Estonia’s Eastern Border
In terms of foreign policy, it would benefit Estonia to have a border agreement with Russia
Read moreDialogue for Agreeing to Disagree
The word “dialogue” comes from Greek and means “speaking through”. Dialogue among states in various formats is usually understood as…
Read moreICDS at MSC2020: Strengthening Deterrence Is Far Less Costly than Dealing with the Consequences of Its Failure
NATO’s only goal in pursuing deterrence in the Baltic region is to protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Allies,…
Read moreCapability and Resolve: Deterrence, Security and Stability in the Baltic Region
In response to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in 2014, NATO has revitalised its core business of deterrence and defence and…
Read moreThe Tartu Peace Treaty and Estonia’s Eastern Border
When Estonia regained independence in August 1991, it was not within the borders in which it was born in February…
Read moreThe 20 Years of Poland in the 70 Years of NATO
NATO – in spite of certain capability shortcomings and the necessity to rebalance the burden sharing – continues to be…
Read moreA Close Look at the Current Situation and a Glimpse into Catalonia’s Future
Recent developments in Catalonia and the impact of the general elections that were held in Spain on 10 November, on…
Read moreAnother Western Attempt to Charm Russia
The West has trouble understanding the cards played by the Kremlin.
Read moreDefence Minister Shoigu Sells Russia’s Military “Success Story”
On 22 September 2019, the Russian newspaper “Moskovskij Komsomolets” (MK) published an unprecedented interview with Sergei Shoigu in what was…
Read moreHow Europe Can Better Defend Itself: Estonian-French Defence Cooperation
About 4 000 soldiers from the French army, navy and air force have participated in around 20 activities on NATO’s…
Read moreRussia’s Local Elections: A Change of Mood but Not of Power
A sharp change of the electorate’s mood in a democracy governed by the rule of law should result in the…
Read moreDoes G7 still represent common values and purpose in the Western World?
Established in 1976 with the accession of Canada, the Group of 7 (G7) has represented and advocated for the interests…
Read moreEstonian-French Defence Cooperation – Where Estonian Pragmatism Meets French Vision
ICDS Research Fellow Kalev Stoicescu and Non-Resident Fellow Maxime Lebrun made a thorough analysis of the defence cooperation and partnership…
Read moreKalev Stoicescu in Äripäev: Trump’s Idea to Buy Greenland Is Not Unprecedented, But It Is Totally Misplaced in the 21st Century
Stoicescu argues that Greenland is actually on the path of independence, even if it is still formally part of the…
Read moreKalev Stoicescu in Postimees: Estonia’s Image is Its Main Asset and Bond with Its Allies and Partners
Estonia won its bid at the UN for a non-permanent place in the Security Council from 2020 to 2021, in…
Read moreKalev Stoicescu in the Sõdur Magazine on the 20th Anniversary of Vladimir Putin’s Emergence to Power in Russia
ICDS Research Fellow Kalev Stoicescu wrote an extensive article to the magazine Sõdur (Soldier) on the 20th anniversary of Vladimir…
Read moreSummary, Estonian Opinion Festival 2019: Global Power Struggle, Europe in the New World Order, New Threats
Estonia’s role in the world is not only related to our geographical location, instead, our future is increasingly shaped by…
Read moreKalev Stoicescu on Vikerraadio: Secrecy About the Nuclear Explosion Close to Russia’s Severodvinsk
ICDS research fellow Kalev Stoicescu told radio Vikerraadio (Estonian Public Broadcasting, ERR) that the blast that occurred on 8 August,…
Read moreKalev Stoicescu in Postimees: NATO Is Not Going to Disband
ICDS research fellow Kalev Stoicescu wrote in an opinion article in the Estonian daily Postimees about NATO – a collective…
Read moreKalev Stoicescu to ERR: Russia Pushes its Military Presence Further West
Russian military authorities announced on 7 August that a permanent helicopter base will become operational on the Suursaar island, in…
Read moreKalev Stoicescu on Kuku Raadio: The People of Ukraine are Waiting for the Law to Be Implemented
The Ukrainian people are looking forward to the law to be implemented and thus their well-being to be improved, commented…
Read moreKalev Stoicescu in Äripäev: In Whose Interest Would a Military Conflict in the Strait of Hormuz Be?
Tehran, which has hijacked a British oil tanker, is increasingly trying to show strength, but the potential military conflict in…
Read moreKalev Stoicescu in Postimees: Iran is a Tougher Nut to Crack Than Iraq
Donald Trump should realise that giving a military strike on Iran will not bring Tehran to the negotiating table and…
Read moreKalev Stoicescu in The Baltic Times: Russia’s Ambitions in the Baltic Region
“Judging by the Kremlin’s deeds (not its different rhetoric and narratives), Russia does not wish to accept anything less on…
Read moreKalev Stoicescu on Vikerraadio: War with Iran Would Have Catastrophic Consequences
"If there were a military outbreak in [Iran], the consequences would be catastrophic, studies show," Kalev Stoicescu, a Research Fellow…
Read moreKalev Stoicescu on Kuku Raadio: The Losharik Submarine Accident Drew Unwanted Attention
The biggest blow to the Russian Armed Forces and Defence Ministry in the Losharik submarine accident was the failure of…
Read moreKalev Stoicescu in Postimees: Russia Considers Its Symbols Sacred with Religious Fanaticism
“The Russian foreign ministry may have - as always - several possible goals. Firstly, it is attempting to show that…
Read moreEstonian Foreign Intelligence Service Yearbook 2019
Since 2016 the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS) has produced yearbooks that highlight the main risks and threats to Estonia’s…
Read moreDeterrence is Highly Dependent on Large-scale Military Exercises
At its summit in Wales in September 2014 NATO decided to launch large-scale military exercises in order to show the…
Read moreICDS Talk: The Future of eFP – More Well-developed Training Areas, Pre-positioned Equipment and Proactive Planning
NATO battlegroups in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland have been a success, according to ICDS research fellows Kalev Stoicescu and…
Read moreContemporary Deterrence – Insights and Lessons from Enhanced Forward Presence
NATO decided, in July 2016, to establish an enhanced Forward Presence (eFP) in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.
Read moreUS Troops Should Stay in Syria
In early April 2018, President Donald Trump made the sensational announcement that US troops would be withdrawn from Syria “very…
Read moreWho Needs a European Army?
The French call it l’Europe de la Défence. At first glance this seems to suggest, at least to non-French observers,…
Read moreBaltics Seek Energy Independence from Russia
ICDS Fellow Researcher Kalev Stoicescu explained to Russian language Voice of America the background of separation of Baltic states’ electicity…
Read moreVostok 2018: Political and Military Significance
September 11 marked the beginning of the main phase of Russia’s annual strategic military exercise, this year held in its…
Read moreDo We Have to Worry About Western Cohesion?
Canada was invited to join the group of six largest advanced Western economies in 1976, in Dorado, Puerto Rico. Pierre…
Read moreKalev Stoicescu Interview on CCD COE and Locked Shield 2018
ICDS Research Fellow Kalev Stoicescu gave an interview in the Russian language ETV+ morning program on CCD COE and the…
Read moreThe New Face of the White House
President Donald Trump appointed John Bolton, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, as his National Security Advisor (NSA) effective…
Read moreSix More Years
President Vladimir Putin just received another six-year mandate to lead his country.
Read morePutin’s Speech
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has delivered a number of assertive anti-Western statements since his notorious address on 10 February 2007…
Read moreICDS Participated at a Conference Organized by the Baltic Defence College
Research Fellows from ICDS participated on 8-9 March at a conference organized by the Baltic Defence College, entitled: “Russia after…
Read moreSyria is Getting Hotter
On December 11th 2017, five days after he announced his expected intention to run for the fourth time for Russia’s…
Read moreRussia’s “allies” Report Presentation
ICDS presented on 14 February 2018 the report Russia’s “allies”, which was written by fellow researcher Kalev Stoicescu.
Read moreEnsuring Continued Allied Presence in Estonia: The Importance of Deploying an Estonian Contingent to Mali
The Enhanced Forward Presence (eFP) of allied troops in NATO’s north-eastern flank (Baltic States and Poland), as decided at the…
Read moreRussia’s “Allies”
Those very few countries who align themselves with Russia are almost habitually written off by Western observers as hopeless cases…
Read moreThe Annual Press-Conference of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin
Fellow Researcher Kalev Stoicescu gave comments to ETV on the annual press-conference of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin (14 December 2017)
Read moreTrump’s Move on Jerusalem
On 22 May 2017, Donald Trump became the first sitting US President to set foot in the Old City of…
Read morePresident Donald Trump’s Decision on Jerusalem
On 7 and 8 December, Fellow Researcher Kalev Stoicescu gave comments to two Estonian TV channels on President Donald Trump’s…
Read moreICDS participated at the Warsaw Security Forum
On 8-9 November ICDS Chief Executive Dmitri Teperik, and Research Fellows Kalev Stoicescu and Piret Pernik, as well as non-resident…
Read moreKalev Stoicescu Contributed to a Debating Europe’s Project
ICDS Fellow Researcher Kalev Stoicescu contributed to Debating Europe’s project “Has Putin succeeded in splitting the Western alliance?”
Read moreIs North Korea About to Launch Another Hot and Cold War?
In June 1950, North Koreans led by Kim Jong-un’s grandfather, the “immortal leader” Kim Il-sung, invaded South Korea with backing…
Read moreKremlin’s UN Gambit in the Donbas
Answers as to why Russia has proposed the UN protection mission for the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine are…
Read moreMikhail Khodorkovsky and Vladimir Kara-Murza Meet with European Leaders to Discuss Russia-Europe Cooperation
ICDS Research Fellow Kalev Stoicescu participated, together with Mikhail Khodorkovski and Vladimir Kara-Murza, in a panel on security threats and…
Read moreDecoding Zapad-2017
Russia’s military exercise Zapad-2017, which will be conducted jointly with Belarus, will be actively scrutinized by Western media channels, and…
Read moreInsight into the public discussion “NATO – from Warsaw to Brussels”
ICDS Fellow Researcher Kalev Stoicescu participated in a public discussion in Riga, on 16 June 2017, entitled "NATO - from…
Read moreMeddling in Western Elections: Russia’s Aims and Gains
Some say that Russia simply gambles when it meddles in other countries’ elections, like a poker or roulette player who…
Read moreMore Arms, More Peace?
President Donald Trump chose to make his first visit abroad – or rather to start his first foreign tour- in…
Read moreVoice of America (Russian): Spring Storm over Estonia
ICDS Research Fellow Kalev Stoicescu was interviewed by the Russian language VoA on “Kevadtorm” (Spring Storm) 2017 exercises of the…
Read moreThe Significance of Macron’s Election Victory
Only 39 years old, Emmanuel Macron is the youngest person ever elected president of the French Republic. He won the…
Read moreRussia’s Mutilated Opposition
Ever since Vladimir Putin and the former KGB elite took full control of Russia, its liberal forces have been kept…
Read moreConsequences of Crime and Punishment in Syria
The cruise missile strike ordered on Syria by President Donald Trump in the early morning (local time) of April 7,…
Read moreVisit by International Relations Society of Tallinn University
On 24 March, Research Fellows Tomas Jermalavičius Kalev Stoicescu, Piret Pernik and Tony Lawrence hosted a visit by members of…
Read moreIs There a Fair Burden Sharing Among NATO Allies?
President Donald Trump has continuously stressed that the US spends an “unfair” amount of its defence budget – by far…
Read moreWhat next for Ukraine?
The ICDS research fellows Kalev Stoicescu and Anna Bulakh discuss the Ukrainian future. The discussion was moderated by Erkki Bahovski.
Read moreCan We Turn Back the Tide of Fake News?
We are under attack
Read morePresident Trump and Improving US–Russian Relations
In June 2001, having been in office for a mere five months, US President George W. Bush met Vladimir Putin—who…
Read moreTrump, Russia and the New Geopolitics of the Baltics
Research Fellow Kalev Stoicescu was interviewed by the New Eastern Europe on US-Russian relations, in connection with the Trump-Putin telephone…
Read moreThere Are No Simple Solutions
The inauguration of the 45th President of the United States of America, Donald Trump, on the 20th of January 2017…
Read moreThe Baltic states and Russia have different views regarding normalization of relations between Russia and the West
ICDS Research Fellow Kalev Stoicescu commented to the Russian language Voice of America on how and why the Baltic states…
Read moreWorkshop on Avoidance of Hazardous Military Incidents
On 21-22 September 2016, Kalev Stoicescu represented ICDS in a workshop on Avoidance of Hazardous Military Incidents (AHMI) organized by…
Read moreIs Belarus the Next in Line?
Many observers agree that President Putin does not appear to have a clearly defined foreign policy strategy or even tactics,…
Read moreRussia’s Possible Reaction to NATO’s Deployment of Defensive Forces in the Eastern Flank
Russia’s sudden, brutal and illegal military actions against Ukraine since 2014 prompted NATO to take counter-measures that it did not…
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