In the space of 15 years, under the leadership of President Vladimir Putin, Russia’s relationship with the Western world has made the journey from difficult partnership to outright confrontation. Russia’s hostility towards the West has deep implications for security and defence in the transatlantic area in general, and in the Nordic–Baltic region in particular. We now face a grim new reality, a change of climate rather than temporary bad weather, to which we must adapt quickly and effectively. NATO and EU nations must step from reactive to proactive policies and practical measures in order to prevent explosive tensions and provocations or even Russian aggression against allies in the Baltic Sea region. Unfortunately, such dark scenarios no longer belong to the realms of fantasy. President Putin has demonstrated that the unthinkable is actually thinkable.
In the space of 15 years, under the leadership of President Vladimir Putin, Russia’s relationship with the Western world has made the journey from difficult partnership to outright confrontation. Russia’s hostility towards the West has deep implications for security and defence in the transatlantic area in general, and in the Nordic–Baltic region in particular. We now face a grim new reality, a change of climate rather than temporary bad weather, to which we must adapt quickly and effectively. NATO and EU nations must step from reactive to proactive policies and practical measures in order to prevent explosive tensions and provocations or even Russian aggression against allies in the Baltic Sea region. Unfortunately, such dark scenarios no longer belong to the realms of fantasy. President Putin has demonstrated that the unthinkable is actually thinkable.
The Western nations abide by the international agreements that constitute the basis of the post-Cold War European security architecture. They respect liberal democratic values and the right of any other nations to embrace these values, as well as their freedom to choose by themselves their own political, economic and cultural affiliation. In this sense, the West could not avoid “provoking” the resurgent and assertive Russia, most notably in the cases of Georgia and Ukraine. The overall confrontation became inevitable, given Russia’s domestic transformation into a militaristic autocracy with overly ambitious foreign-policy goals that vehemently opposes the Western world and shows aggressiveness against neighbouring countries.
The Kremlin’s propaganda machine accuses the West, especially the US, of having provoked and sustained a political, economic and ideological “crusade” to force Russia to its knees and overthrow Putin’s authoritarian regime. Numerous politicians, business leaders and opinion formers seem to buy this narrative, and blame Western governments for unnecessarily interfering in Russia’s “backyard”. They are convinced, or just pretend to believe, that Russia may and should be appeased, at the expense of countries like Ukraine and Georgia, for the sake of peace, big business and natural gas. This narrative is supposed to exploit Western pacifism and fear of war to the maximum, and to induce a spirit of indulgence and compromise towards Russia’s policies and actions.
Continue reading: The Russian Threat to Security in the Baltic Sea Region (PDF)