Lithuania, Latvia and Poland are currently dealing with a migrant crisis triggered and fuelled by the regime in Belarus. They have no experience in managing such crises, and might find value in studying the approaches, solutions, and mistakes of EU peers such as Italy and Spain, countries that have often been on the frontline in dealing with illegal migration.
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Promotion of cooperation in the Indo-Pacific will serve to connect Europe and Asia. ‘Sincere powers’ should proactively interact with each other and seek to convince the major powers such as China to restrain their behaviour and adhere to the international norms and rules.
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One cannot ignore the misfortune of others in counterintelligence—international cooperation is necessary. Ignoring unacceptable actions that occur elsewhere or failing to discuss them at home means more victims in the future.
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The exact reasons for the build-up of Russian forces in and around Ukraine are known only to President Vladimir Putin and his inner circle, but it would be unwise to believe that there is no link between this show of force and the signals Moscow receives from Kyiv and Western capitals. Western nations should not be or appear to be deterred by Russian information operations and troop build-ups.
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The current reaction of the West to provocative threats by Russia is both prompt and concrete, but for political statements to reach the desired effect, they must be supplemented by substantial practical steps.
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Hot information war, creeping escalation and other warnings and developments indicate that Russia is moving towards another attack on Ukraine. Will it be annexation of Donbas, a launch of full-scale military operations or insertion of Russian ‘peacekeepers’?
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In the occupied Crimea, promoting militarism among the youth of the Crimea is a consistent, large-scale, purposeful process, aimed at suppressing individuality and raising obedient and motivated soldiers for the Russian armed forces. The militarisation starts in the kindergartens or even at birth.
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In late 2020, Belarus inaugurated the Astravyets Nuclear Power Plant (Astravyets NPP). This facility – funded by the Russian government and built by the Russian state-owned corporation Rosatom – is one that Lithuania considers a threat to its national security. The project has already been causing frictions in the Baltic region that are yet to be resolved; the situation is emblematic of why and how Moscow is advancing its interests by exploiting the nuclear energy aspirations of various countries in Europe.
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As usual, Russia is trying to benefit from Georgia’s toxic political environment and capitalise on the divisions. It has doubled down on its pressure and blackmail to push the vulnerable country towards formally changing its pro-Western foreign policy course. By undermining its democratic credentials and Western integration, Georgia is naturally sliding towards Russia’s orbit.
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The analysis highlights instrumentalisation of resilience for mitigating security threats, especially in the discourse on NATO deterrence and defence.
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