Despite a barrage of cyber-attacks from state and non-state actors, NATO’s recent communiqué reaffirmed a defensive commitment to cybersecurity without proposing new offensive responses. While some may characterize this response as ineffective, pursuing diplomatic and economic retaliation to low-grade cyber threats offers the best outcome for the Alliance.
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The current reaction of the West to provocative threats by Russia is both prompt and concrete, but for political statements to reach the desired effect, they must be supplemented by substantial practical steps.
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The last six months have offered numerous examples indicating that the level of military activity in the Arctic and Baltic regions continues to increase slowly but steadily. Russian and Western forces have in different ways increased their presence in these contested regions and nations are strengthening relevant military capabilities.
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How will the developments outlined in the Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy, presented on 16 March 2021, and the Defence Command Paper published on 22 March affect the UK’s military presence and level of activity in the north-eastern corner of Europe and specifically in Estonia?
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NATO routinely measures and compares the national defence inputs and outputs of its members to assess how they share the burden of collective defence. It has always been apparent that by comparison with the US, Europe needs to do more, but NATO’s burden-sharing discussion is stuck on tired arguments about simple spending measures.
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Donald Trump’s transactional approach to diplomacy stood in stark contrast to the long-standing broad commitments that have traditionally underpinned relations between the US and its allies. It is no surprise that Joe Biden’s victory was met with sighs of relief in many NATO capitals.
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Cyber conscription is quite a new phenomenon and there is no common definition of the term. Cyber conscripts may carry out a range of functions including technical cybersecurity and cyber defence, as well as IT support, programming and development. They may also serve in more traditional branches such as communications/signals, intelligence, and even social media.
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As in any massive organisations across the world, changes in the armed forces of the Russian Federation do not take place overnight or even on a yearly basis.
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Russia’s military exercises, operations and defence industry exhibitions are showcasing an increasing number of unmanned aerial, land and maritime platforms. Some examples are dismissed by Western observers as evident failures and signs of unrealistic ambitions, even as a sort of “Potemkin village” display. However, there is no denying the fact that Russia’s defence leadership, military theorists and military practitioners are showing keen interest in robotic military applications featuring varying degrees of autonomy in performing their tasks.
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Allies in the Mediterranean region rightly expect NATO to take threats and challenges from the south as seriously as they do those from the east. NATO needs to work out and to implement a comprehensive strategy and plans for the south that include concrete aims, joint actions, and resources. Alliance cohesion and solidarity depends to a substantial extent on the ability of the Allies to do this. The north-eastern flank Allies are ready to play their part, but it is the Mediterranean Allies who have the understanding and expertise necessary to define the content of a strategy for the regions they border.
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