Cyber conflict is going on all around us, all of the time. The smartphone in your pocket can be compromised to become part of a botnet (robot network) that is used to overwhelm the servers of financial companies.
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Targeted cyber strikes are faster, cleaner, cheaper, less risky, and more stealthy than conventional military and intelligence operations. Who can conduct such technologically advanced attacks? What are the targets? Is there a legal framework for using them, and how significantly do they really affect the larger debates on regional and global peace and security? What are the parallels that can be drawn to other fields, such as nuclear proliferation? These and many other questions provided the context for conversations between cyber security analysts and policymakers at this year’s 9th annual Lennart Meri Conference (LMC) held in Tallinn, Estonia on 24-26 April and entitled “The Limits of Order.”
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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sparked a rethinking of traditional geopolitical norms and warfare tactics. For this reason, ICDS convened a panel of experts to shed light on recent developments and in particular, Russian use of hybrid warfare. This report is largely drawn from discussions with those experts.
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The computer networks of ministries and agencies are being probed for vulnerabilities by foreign security agencies. Cyber criminals are spreading malware that encrypts your files and holds them for ransom. The complexity of the Estonian language is no longer a high enough barrier to prevent effective phishing. Irregularly monitored websites are being breached and loaded with malware. If you didn’t think cyber security affected every individual and every institution, think again.
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On 27 February, research fellow Piret Pernik called for greater cyber security awareness and political coordination within Europe in remarks at a seminar entitled From Cyber Security to Cyber Defence in Brussels.
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“In this day and age, you could argue that information warfare is more significant than actual military operations,” says Matthew Bryza, a former US diplomat now working for the Estonia-based International Centre for Defence Studies.
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OSCE seems to not be ready to adopt more advanced confidence building measures. Closer cooperation will be more likely within smaller like-minded groups or geographically close states. The electricity and telecommunications sectors urgently need a close public-private partnership and enhanced intergovernmental collaboration to reduce vulnerabilities stemming from cross-border and cross-sector dependencies including agreements on common minimum security standards.
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The critical infrastructure and essential services on which modern economies depend rely increasingly on information and communication technologies (ICT). Most global, transatlantic and regional international organisations (UN, NATO, the EU, G8, OSCE, OECD, ITU, ICANN, AU, ASEAN, OAS, etc.) have developed policies and instruments to address the growing sophistication of cyber attacks against critical infrastructures and services. This paper presents a comparative analysis of the approaches of NATO and the EU to cyber security.
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Ukraine needs tangible assistance from the West to confront current threats. In cyber space this will entail projects in three areas: cyber defence skills and capabilities development; cyber security policy, legislation and strategy development; and material and technical assistance.
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With hybrid warfare, nation-states seem to prefer to outsource both kinetic and cyber attacks to non-state proxies in order to disclaim any responsibility. However, Russia’s ongoing military offensive in Ukraine shows that for more sophisticated kinetic operations, regular forces are apparently preferred to militias to avoid collateral damage, among other reasons. The same seems to be true in cyberspace – when stakes are higher, professionals are preferred over amateurs.
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