Having been crumbling already for years, international arms control architecture is now in a perilous state. Existing arrangements have either been losing their effectiveness or outright failing due to Russia’s non-compliance, whilst Russia’s aggression against Ukraine might have delivered the final blow to this system.
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Promotion of cooperation in the Indo-Pacific will serve to connect Europe and Asia. ‘Sincere powers’ should proactively interact with each other and seek to convince the major powers such as China to restrain their behaviour and adhere to the international norms and rules.
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Since entering into force in 2011, the New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) has helped to verifiably reduce deployed and non-deployed nuclear delivery vehicles and deployed nuclear warheads. The Treaty is due to expire in 2021, unless the parties agree to an extension – a process that has been initiated, but the outcome remains to be seen.
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The US is due to leave the Open Skies Treaty on 22 November 2020, six months after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced the decision.
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While the countries of NATO’s north-eastern flank—Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland—are correctly putting emphasis in their security policy on strengthening deterrence, they need to take a more proactive stance on arms control.
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There is a high probability that the Treaty between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Elimination of their Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (INF Treaty) will be terminated within the next 12 months. European countries need to assess the consequences for their national and regional security as well as the impact on wider international security.
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The announcement by President Donald Trump that the US is to withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty of 1987 stirred quite a controversy.
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