Swedish Security and Defence in 2014 as Seen from the East

Sweden is, in terms of GDP and population, the largest of the Nordic and Baltic nations. This paper examines last year’s security- and defence-related developments affecting both Sweden and its Nordic–Baltic neighbours, most of which are members of the European Union and NATO. Special attention is given to aspects of security that at a first glance may seem purely national, but are also important when seen from Tallinn, Riga and Vilnius.

Last year, Sweden saw a lively debate on security and defence policy issues, focusing on three major topics: Russia’s increasingly unscrupulous behaviour, the poor state of the Swedish armed forces and the future of the country’s traditional non-alignment policy. By the end of 2014, the debate had not resulted in any significant political decisions. It is not obvious why Sweden’s political leadership would need more than nine months to draw the necessary conclusions from Russia’s occupation and illegal annexation of Crimea in early 2014. Neither the previous centre-right Alliance for Sweden nor the newly formed left-wing government were ready to increase the defence budget more than symbolically or consider the option of joining NATO. This is in stark contrast to Lithuania’s 32% defence budget increase in 2015 and might tempt the false conclusion that Sweden is one of the all-talk-no-action Western European nations that choose to rely on their allies, especially the US. But, being a non-aligned country, Sweden does not have any allies to rely upon, only partners – of which Russia is one of the most powerful, for better or worse.

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