Ice Melts, Money Burns

Russia’s principal remaining natural resources are located in the Arctic. While the country’s ambitions to conquer the part of the region it does not already hold are great, there is no money to back these in reality—nor will any materialize in the future.

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How Euromaidan Saved NATO

The article is based on a presentation prepared for Lennart Meri Conference 2014.

What if Euromaidan had turned out differently? The Berkut brutalities of 30 Nov and 11 Dec only inflamed protests. But the introduction of the draconian law package No. 3879 on 17 Jan could have been followed by a more sustained and violent campaign against Euromaidan. Intimidation, personal targetting, terror in the streets and maximum use of Titushky, Berkut and the heavily Russian infiltrated SBU (Ukrainian Security Service) special forces could have broken the back of Euromaidan. What would have followed?

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On deterrence and defense: the case of Estonia

Russian annexation of Crimea, although couched in a referendum and an appeal by the Crimean Russians for “protection”, has suddenly reinforced a reality that in the last two decades most of the Europeans have rather wanted to forget: that military force is still useable currency and Russia has a President who does not seem to shirk from using it.

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