Preventing a new fault line from emerging on Europe’s northeastern ensures that the process of democratic transition may again be strengthened in its journey eastward, not only in Eastern Europe but possibly, one day, in Russia itself.
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Attribution of cyberattacks is difficult and may take considerable time and resources. Many cyber security experts believe that to make sense of politically-motivated cyber incidents, the political and geopolitical context must be considered. The recent cyber incidents that took place in the Baltic countries and Ukraine during the NATO military exercise Steadfast Jazz (held in Poland and the Baltic States on November 2-9) provide a good opportunity to examine relationships between hacktivists, government-controlled media, as well as the possibility of links between “patriotic hacktivists” with elements within governments. The recent cyber incidents are remarkable also for their sequencing: when some Estonian and Latvian government websites came under distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks, there was also an attempt to connect the Tallinn-based NATO’s Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence (CCD COE) with faked emails and defacement of webpages in Ukraine. What is more, both types of cyber incidents were used by Russian government- controlled and owned media outlets to misinform Russian speaking community in Russia and at its “near-abroad” about NATO.
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If the Russian side had the intention to bring Georgia to its knees, then it thought the goal had been achieved. Alas, this time it was Russia which was wrong – the military victory did not translate into a political one.
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For Russia other potential partners, meaning first and foremost Asia, will hardly be as close and predictable as Europe.
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On any given summer Saturday morning in Tallinn, tourists can be found walking up and down the Balti Jaam flea market hoping to find a unique piece of the former Soviet era—whether military uniforms, pins or medals, portraits of Lenin, and red Communist Party membership cards. Unfortunately, these visitors rarely realize that since the supply of such relics is of course finite, the majority of them are cheap, newly-made copies—part of an industry that in a bizarre way is keeping the Soviet Union alive.
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The “shale gas revolution” in the United States is changing the world’s energy map. The International Energy Agency’s latest predictions suggest that by 2035 America will have become the world’s largest gas producer, outpacing Russia. Until recently, Gazprom, Russia’s natural gas monopoly, has been skeptical about such forecasts. But Gazprom’s lack of long-term vision can have negative implications both for the company and for the country.
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NATO and Russia continue to cooperate on many issues, especially within the framework of the NATO-Russia Council (NRC). Primary areas of collaboration include maritime piracy, military exchanges, training exercises, terrorism, crisis management, WMD nonproliferation, small arms control, theatre missile defense, maritime rescue, defense reform, civil emergencies, and new security threats. In February, the heads of the NATO Military Committee and the Russian General Staff opened a direct communications hotline in their latest endeavor to promote mutual transparency and collaboration.
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Gazprom has long enjoyed the title of Russia’s “national energy champion,” but in a race to meet rising energy demand in Asia, Moscow’s shifting gas strategy could enable the rise of alternative gas producers Rosneft and Novatek, and weaken Gazprom’s position at home and abroad. Novatek, Russia’s second-largest natural gas producer, is working hard to bring the Yamal LNG project online and to secure future gas export contracts to Asia. Meanwhile, after recently acquiring significant offshore natural gas reserves, Russian oil major Rosneft has announced plans to enter the Russian gas market and has chosen independent gas producer ITERA to operate its future gas projects, increasing competitive pressure on both Gazprom and Novatek. A government decision to liberalize LNG exports, anticipated very soon, could be the final straw that breaks Gazprom’s stranglehold on the Russian gas export market. Yet, Gazprom remains hopeful in light of new supply agreements with China. Now, all three gas producers are gearing up for a heated competition over the future direction of the Russian gas industry.
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The extensive Kavkaz-2012 (Caucasus-2012) military exercises, completed in southern Russia in the second half of September, were mostly characterised in the media as war games aimed at safeguarding internal security.
The manoeuvres were conducted against the backdrop of continued volatility in the North Caucasus and the Sochi Winter Olympic Games looming large on the horizon.
But in fact the Kavkaz-2012 manoeuvres could contain the seeds of preparations for a full-scale conventional conflict that would involve Russia and its neighbouring countries.