Foreign Policy Concepts

Forecasting the Baltics’ Future Security Environment

Every few years, the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC) publishes studies of how the world might evolve over the next two decades. Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, released in December 2012, is the latest such iteration. Its four scenarios include one in which the United States turns inward and economic globalization stagnates (“Stalled Engines”); one in which non-state actors like activists and corporations assume the lead role in addressing international challenges (“Nonstate World”); a best-case world in which China and the United States catalyze global cooperation on a range of problems (“Fusion”); and a worst-case future of growing inequality and conflicts between and within countries (“Gini Out-of-the-Bottle”).

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