Deterrence

A Plausible Scenario of Nuclear War in Europe, and How to Deter It

A special issue of Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists published an article co-authored by ICDS Director Jüri Luik and Head of Studies Tomas Jermalavičius on a plausible scenario of a limited nuclear war in Europe and on the need for the Alliance to further strengthen the deterrence posture in the Baltic area, placing a particular emphasis on deterrence by denial in order to avoid such a scenario.

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Boosting the Deterrent Effect of Allied Enhanced Forward Presence

At the Warsaw Summit in July 2016, NATO allies decided to establish an enhanced forward presence (eFP) on the territory of the Baltic states and Poland “to unambiguously demonstrate, as part of our overall posture, Allies’ solidarity, determination, and ability to act by triggering an immediate Allied response to any aggression”. The implementation of this historic decision has now resulted in the first-ever stationing of combat-ready troops from other Allied nations in the Baltic region.

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Resilience as Part of NATO’s Strategy: Deterrence by Denial and Cyber Defence

The School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) of John Hopkins University published a study entitled “Forward Resilience: Protecting Society in an Interconnected World”. Tomas Jermalavičius, a head of studies, and Piret Pernik, a research fellow at the ICDS, contributed an article for the book. The volume focuses on the notion of resilience and how the EU and NATO are building the capacity to anticipate, preempt and resolve disruptive challenges to vital societal functions. Authors of the papers argue that state-by-state approaches to resilience are insufficient in an interconnected world and resilience must be projected forward.

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NATO Warsaw Summit – Implications for Estonia

Focusing on the evolution of the security landscape of the Baltic Sea Region, Latvian Institute of International Affairs (LIIA) published a book – “The Baltic Sea Region: Hard and Soft Security Reconsidered” (Ed. By Māris Andžāns, Ilvija Bruģe). It provides a collection of opinions assessing the current situation in the region both in the military as well as non-military fields.

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