Russia’s full-scale and genocidal invasion of Ukraine has already brought substantial changes to the relations of EU Eastern neighbourhood countries with Moscow, while its consequences are reshaping the geopolitical balance in the region.
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In 2022, the BCME in cooperation with the International Centre for Defence and Security (Estonia) and individual experts from Latvia and Lithuania carried out a research project titled “Media Literacy Sector Mapping in Estonia.” Similar mapping reports, which applied the same methodology but studied Georgia, Latvia, Moldova, and Ukraine, were produced in 2021.
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At the beginning of September 2022, Azerbaijan launched a massive artillery bombardment of neighbouring Armenia, using military force outside the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh for the first time in decades. The timing was not a coincidence: Russian forces were too heavily engaged in Ukraine to intervene elsewhere. This demonstration of the CSTO’s impotence as a collective defence organisation and Moscow’s inability to provide military aid to strategic partners will likely have lasting impact on the security dynamics of the South Caucasus.
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In the same way that it is difficult to say whether a single event in the last few decades marks Russia’s decisive breaking away from democratic path of development, it is difficult to say the same about the events of the last decade in Georgia. Nevertheless, this breaking away has taken place, although Estonia, the European Union, the United States, all Georgia’s Western friends have made powerless attempts to keep Georgia on track.
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As usual, Russia is trying to benefit from Georgia’s toxic political environment and capitalise on the divisions. It has doubled down on its pressure and blackmail to push the vulnerable country towards formally changing its pro-Western foreign policy course. By undermining its democratic credentials and Western integration, Georgia is naturally sliding towards Russia’s orbit.
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The formation of our new world differs in complexity, notably according to a number of pandemic and post-pandemic factors that encourage the transformation of old “centres of power” and the emergence of new ones.
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Twelve years have passed since the Russo-Georgian war of August 2008. That is more than enough time to assess its major consequences not only for Georgia but also on a broader scale.
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International autumn seminar Resilience League, entitled “National resilience: communication and security” and held in Kyiv on 28-30 October 2018, gathered around 30 young professionals and experts from Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus as well as speakers and trainers from the Baltic states, Georgia, Ukraine and United Kingdom.
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On September 18th ICDS hosted a seminar which looked back at the Russian aggression against Georgia 10 years ago.
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On Monday November 6 2017, the International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS) and Estonian Center of Eastern Partnership (ECEAP) hosted a public discussion entitled “Cyber Threats and Their Consequences: The Examples of Georgia and Ukraine” with Scott Borg, Director and Chief Economist, U.S. Cyber Consequences Unit, a research institution that investigates the strategic and economic consequences of cyberattacks.
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